In a report issued by Hawaii’s Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism, officials predict the state will not see cruise traffic until the second half of 2021..

“No cruise visitors until second half of 2021,” said the report. “It will take 6 years for visitor arrivals to recover to the 2019 level. This is based on the 2009 great recession pace.”

Norwegian Cruise Line will be hit the hardest among cruise operators, with a dedicated year-round ship in the Pride of America. In 2017, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings President and CEO Frank Del Rio called the vessel the highest yielding in the company’s fleet.

The 2005-built ship is unique in the fact it carries a U.S. flag, meaning it can conduct cruises without visiting a foreign port. If the ship were to redeploy, new itineraries could include Alaska without Canada, or the U.S. East Coast, which would give Norwegian access to high yielding markets with very unique itineraries. 

Hawaii will welcome 3.4 million visitors in 2020, according to the report, a decrease of 67.5 percent from 2019 level.

Visitor arrivals will increase to 6.2 million in 2021, 8.3 million in 2022, and 9.4 million in 2023. Visitor arrivals will not reach the 2019 level until 2025 based on the assumptions. Visitor spending will decrease more during the next few years due to the decrease in daily spending.