Jefferies analyst David Katz updated his outlook on two major cruise operators this week following their fourth quarter and year end 2025 earnings, lifting his price target on Viking while maintaining a cautious stance on Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings.
Viking Impresses
In a note sent to investors, Katz raised his price target on Viking $91 from $80, reiterating a buy rating, after the company posted its fourth quarter and full year results.
Occupancy of 95.0%, against Katz’s 92.7% projection, led the outperformance, driven by particularly strong ocean segment results where occupancy improved 330 basis points year-over-year. Net yields rose 11.0% in the quarter, roughly double analyst expectations.
Looking ahead, Viking said fiscal 2026 is now 86% booked, up from more than 70% as of the third quarter.
“The clarity of growth is also critical support for the increasing valuation multiples we apply,” Katz wrote, adding that he expects Viking to “continue to outperform peers within cruise and across our coverage, largely irrespective of valuation levels.”
Katz also noted that Viking’s river operations are effectively fully fuel-hedged through forward purchase agreements, and that its only itineraries near the Iran conflict, a small percentage of 2026 capacity in Egypt, have not prompted guest concerns.
Norwegian: Hold, $20 Target
Katz was less upbeat on Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings reiterating a hold rating and maintaining his $20 price target.
Management said Norwegian is running slightly behind its optimal booking curve for 2026, he said, and plans to prioritize occupancy recovery, a strategy Katz acknowledged as “a necessary strategic move” but one that “likely comes with lower pricing in the near term.”
On the cost side, Katz said SG&A reductions are now the target for savings, with ship costs already reduced meaningfully. He expects those efforts to gain traction in the second half of 2026 and into 2027.
“Given guidance for leverage greater than 5.0x through YE26, we remain conservative on the shares,” he wrote.
