MAN Energy Solutions and the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI) have partnered for a new study to look at banning fossil fuels in shipping, the #AHOY2050 future study.

The study outlines four scenarios that explore how to reach the maritime industry’s climate targets by 2050, but also consider the failure to do so, according to a press release.

“The maritime industry currently has a goal, but not yet a way to get there,” said Dr Uwe Lauber, CEO of MAN Energy Solutions. “By 2050, the International Maritime Organization wants greenhouse-gas emissions to fall by 50%, however these targets have not yet been backed up by concrete measures.” According to Lauber: “Time is pressing – 2050 is just a single ship-generation away.”

MAN Energy Solutions also sees the study as a wake-up call.

“With shipping, everyone always talks about the technical side. Technically, however, the maritime energy transition has long been feasible. For years, the challenge has been at the political and an overall, societal level,” said Lauber, summing up the situation. “Today, we can build engines that run on zero-emission fuels, but making the decision to ramp up synthetic fuels in the market is not something we can do alone.”

#AHOY2050 therefore approaches shipping as part of a global ecosystem. Beginning with societal awareness of the problem and the importance of climate protection – and extending it to commodity prices, global economic development and Covid-19 – a multitude of factors impact global shipping.

Lauber said: “It is these interrelationships that will largely determine how resolutely the maritime energy transition is pursued.”

The Fraunhofer Institute team interviewed some 40 experts from all areas of the maritime industry, but also from associations, science and politics. Over 30 industry experts subsequently discussed the scenarios drafted on this basis in a workshop.

Presenting four scenarios, the study shows possible development paths for the shipping industry and their ramifications. It views the marine industry as part of a global ecosystem that is sensitive to overall societal and economic decisions. In two of the scenarios, climate targets are met or even exceeded by 2050. By contrast, the other two scenarios point to the potential failure of climate policy.

The complete study and all four scenarios are available for download at https://www.man-es.com/ahoy2050.