Where will the Chinese cruise capacity go if the coronavirus outbreak and travel restrictions continue?

Taiwan: A year-round market for Genting Cruise Lines, Taiwan is a major source market in Asia and has supported seasonal programs for both Princess and Costa, as well as other brands. Royal Caribbean is reportedly moving the Spectrum of the Seas to Taiwan on a temporary basis.

Japan: The Japanese source market supports three local year-round Japanese-flagged ships, as well as programs for Costa and Princess, which have been slowly and carefully built up over the years. Sourcing is limited.

Russia: A long-shot, Vladivostok in the Russian Far East could be used as a turn port for cruises to Japan.

South Korea: Korean officials have made public comments about a home-grown cruise brand. Major tour operators have chartered Costa ships for weeks at a time leaving from South Korean ports, which have big-ship infrastructure ready to go.

Southeast Asia: Singapore’s Marina Bay terminal has the facilities to handle the biggest ships and the airlift into the city to source globally. Other cruise hubs in Southeast Asia include Malaysia and the Philippines, the former of which has Port Klang, the homeport to Kuala Lumpur.

Guam: Guam has a deep water port, airlift and short sailing distances to nearby islands.

Australia: Capacity is up Down Under in 2020, with a population that loves cruising. During the SARS outbreak in the early 2000s, Star Cruises repositioned a ship into the Australian market. But with the highest market penetration rate in the industry at 5 percent, can Australia support more ships?

Alaska: Many ships crisscross between Alaska and Asia/Australia between seasons. Alaska is at record capacity levels in 2020, but could absorb additional tonnage on off-peak days.

Hawaii: Without American-flagged ships, operators would be forced to visit a foreign port, meaning long sailings or high-speed, fuel-burning transits.

Mexican Riviera: The Mexican Riviera could see a renaissance, andstill hasn’t fully rebounded from its peak a decade ago. Homeports supporting Mexican Riviera operations include a trio of Southern California ports in Long Beach, Los Angeles and San Francisco.

Europe: Sending a ship back to Europe would position it in the strongest summer market, but a long transit time is among the challenges.

Layup: The major cruise operators have not traditionally laid up their revenue-generating ships for any reason.