Gotaas-Larsen Scenarios

There are four most likely scenarios developing from Carnival Cruise Lines’s attempt to take over Gotaas-Larsen’s cruise interests:

1) Carnival acquires one third interest in Royal Admiral Cruises and becomes a minority shareholder.
2) Carnival acquires one third interest now and later buys out the Norwegian partners.
3) Carnival is preempted by I.M. Skaugen and Anders Wilhelmsen.
4) Gotaas-Larsen decides not to sell or to sell to a new partner.

In any event, Carnival has gained a tremendous amount of positive attention and clearly established itself as the dominant and most dynamic cruise line. By acquiring a third interest in Royal Admiral it would gain dominance of the North American cruise market. If I.M. Skaugen and Anders Wilhelmsen instead buys out Gotaas-Larsen, the $260 million debt they will incur, may force RCCL to postpone plans for newbuildins, which will mean less competition for Carnival.

Regardless of the outcome, Carnival appears to be the winner.

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